when does the new iphone come out

When Does the new iPhone Come Out?

Find Out When the new iPhone will Come Out!

release date of new iphone
Every year, people of all cultures and faiths gather around the dinner table. And the speculation returns to one thing: When does the new iPhone Come out?

Apple is nothing if not a methodical company. If you look at the when new iPads have been released, we have:

  • April 3rd, 2010 [Original Wifi iPad] {April 30th, 2010 for 3G iPad}
  • March 11th, 2011 [iPad 2]
  • March 16th, 2012 [3rd Gen iPad, aka "the new iPad"]

    So in iPad releases, we see a gap of about 11 months, followed by a gap of 12 months. So pretty regular.

    Now for phones, here are the release dates we have for the new iPhone by year:

  • June 29th, 2007 - Original iPhone
  • July 11th, 2008 - iPhone 3G
  • June 19th, 2009 - iPhone 3Gs
  • June 24th, 2010 - iPhone 4
  • October 14th, 2011 - iPhone 4S
  • September 21st, 2012 - iPhone 5

    We see that Apple follows a regular yearly release of an updated iPhone. Using this historical information, we can bound the release date for the new iPhone:

  • The earliest we would expect the new iPhone would be June 19th, 2013
  • The latest we would expect the new iPhone would be October 14th, 2013

    Now, using further analysis, we can see that the time between releases is:

  • 378 days between the Original iPhone and iPhone 3G
  • 343 days between the iPhone 3G and the iPhone 3GS
  • 370 days between the iPhone 3GS and the iPhone 4
  • 477 days between the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4S
  • 343 days between the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 5

    So we see the median time between iPhone releases is 343 days. If we use this metric, we get:

  • [median release date metric] The new iPhone will be released August 30th, 2013

    And if we calculate the average time between releases, we get:

  • [average release date metric] The new iPhone will be released October 8th, 2013

    The above notes that there are 382 days on average between iPhone releases.

    It seems that the 477 days between the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4S was an anomaly, so throwing that time out we get an average time between iPhones of 358.5 days, which is pretty close to one year exactly. Using this time, we get:

  • [average release with outlier removed] The new iPhone will be released on September 15th, 2013

    Anyway, there is about all the information you can extract legally on when the new iPhone will come out. Apple of course doesn't provide any information on such things. Good luck on ordering your new iPhone!

  • the original iphone, on release date

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